June car sales: June car sales preview: Chip supply improving, PV wholesalers likely to benefit

June car sales: June car sales preview: Chip supply improving, PV wholesalers likely to benefit
As a result of improving semiconductor chip supply, sales of passenger cars (PVs) in the month of June may have benefited from what could be the best-ever June for wholesalers, analysts say.

Demand trends for PVs have remained resilient despite the price hike that was driven by pent-up demand. However, the waiting time remains exorbitantly high for best-selling models between 1.5 months and 6 months, according to Dolat Capital

“We expect PV wholesalers to benefit from improved chip delivery, with June volumes being the all-time best June wholesaler. We expect further improvement in July. An important risk to watch out for is the progress of the monsoon,” says research firm Nomura.

Overall, wholesale volumes of two-wheelers, PVs, 3Ws, CVs and tractors are expected to grow by 7.0%, 19.5%, 4.0%, 65.5% and 3.0% YoY, respectively, according to .

However, rising prices and the monsoon shortage remain a concern.

On June 27, the monsoon was 10% below the average in India as some states in northern and western India noted significant deficiencies. “Crop seeding is about 20% lower than last year so far and could affect demand in rural areas if monsoons don’t pick up,” Nomura said.

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Car wholesale expectations

The delay in the monsoon has also affected the demand for tractors. “Agricultural demand is currently subdued and commercial demand remains flat. The inventory in the system is about 30 days,” analysts from Motilal Oswal said.

Demand trends in the two-wheeler industry remain weak as chip supply constraints remain an overhang. Premium engines over 150cc have experienced chip shortages, leading to a wait of approximately 15 days for

say reports.

The preference for electric vehicles has remained high, at around 3.6% of the sector in June. However, analysts say sales have been negatively impacted by inventory shortages for some players, and some recent reports of battery explosions have also impacted momentum.

Demand for commercial vehicles (CVs) may decline somewhat as infrastructure activities have come to a standstill due to the monsoon.