The rankings below are based on a combination of expected output and DraftKingsNASCAR Salaries for Sunday. The order is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather on the worth of each driver.
The DraftKings NASCAR Cup Series DuraMAX Drydene 400 presented by RelaDyne at Dover slate locks at 3pm ET on Sunday.
1. Kyle Larson ($11,800) – Any job Larson won in a Chip Ganassi jalopy, that’s a Larson job. When he drove a Hendrick car on those tracks last season, he controlled those races.
2. William Byron ($11,000) – Is This The Year Hendrick Chevy Returns To The Top With Number 24? Or is this an overreaction to good results during a messy schedule? Byron finished fourth in both of the last two Dover races.
3. Alex Bowman ($10,100) – During the first half of the 2021 Dover race, Bowman was the slowest of the four Hendrick cars. He took the lead on the pit lane and used clean air to his advantage and won. This is arguably Bowman’s best track with four top-5 finishes in the last five races.
4. Chase Elliott ($11,300) – Every week Elliott knocks on the door. He sits atop the NASCAR standings. A win is coming soon. Last season he knocked on Dover’s door.
5. Joey Logano ($10,600) – Did you know that Joey Logano has the third best Real Rating this season (a stat that completely sums up a driver’s race). Calm down, Logano has been great this season. Don’t be surprised if he sneaks away with a win at Dover.
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6. Ryan Blaney ($10,300) – This is a good test. Dover was not a good job for Blaney. He was fast every week this season on each of the vastly different race tracks. This setup should be a layout for his new crew chief Jonathan Hassler.
7. Martin Truex Jr ($9,800) – Last year, Truex suffered damage at Dover. In the previous four races he finished 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 1st. In the last 10 races at his home circuit, he achieved eight top-10 finishes.
8. Ross Chastain ($8,600) – It’s hard to pass in Dover (see Kyle Larson’s second place in 2021 despite having the best car). It’s hard to pass in the Next Gen car (see all oval races from this season). Pitweg will make or break a driver, and Chastain has the best pit crew.
9. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) — It’s hard to read 2022. There’s a new car and a joke schedule. The season actually started with an obstacle course. Hamlin struggled in the mud puddle, but he looked good in the labyrinth of rubber bands. How does that help us this week?
10. Kevin Harvick ($9,300) — Is he back? No one knows, but it’s better to be early to the party than late. Harvick ran 99% of his laps in the top 10 at Dover last season.
11. Kyle Busch ($9,100) – This is one thing. There is enough data to support this. Kyle Busch is terrible at the spring races at Dover. He is cursed. Don’t fight the curse.
12. Tyler Reddick ($8,800) — Last year, Reddick achieved a top-10 finish in Dover. He is arguably better this season. Does that mean he is now a top 5 driver or a potential race winner at Dover?
13. Christopher Bell ($8,100) – What are we going to do with this schedule? Bell was good at Richmond and Martinsville, but those are short, flat courses. It feels like the start of the season.
14. Harrison Burton ($5,000) – In elite gear, Burton was a major disappointment in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series. Unsurprisingly, he struggles in the Cup Series, but it’s surprising to see a quasi-Penske car priced at $5,000.
15. Todd Gilliland ($5,400) — Until his price moves north of $6,000, it’s Todd Squad for life! If it becomes too expensive, the whole “for life” thing will be forgotten and the cherished item will be abandoned.
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